NHL in Atlanta, Phoenix and New Orleans gets a hard no from me
But follow the money visa vie broadcast and streaming rights
Excuse me while I author an article about the National Hockey League and its board of governors' alleged attempt to expand the league to 36 teams.
In the past, I have written for The Hockey Writers as well as Victoria Sports News, Black Press and Glacier Media about hockey. I write for Athletics Illustrated Magazine and have about 7,000 articles posted on the latter. I have watched hockey since the age of four (1970).
So, as a sport and specifically a hockey fan, I feel somewhat qualified to share my opinion on the NHL’s supposed attempt to expand the league.
While expansion can be an exciting venture for hockey fans and business provocateurs in equal measure, it is currently not a great idea for a few reasons: Not enough players at that level, not enough fans in the warm-weather markets, not enough global participation in the sport — yet.
The Hockey World
Canada, Sweden, Finland, the U.S.A, the Czech Republic, Russia, and a few European pockets have quality hockey culture but this does not represent a truly global footprint. One may argue that you can add in emerging Norway, Germany, and Denmark.
The U.S.A. has grown over the past 20 years to the point that they are globally dominant. Canada, Russia, and Sweden continue to be on equal footing with them, with Finland close behind.
Nearly half of NHL players continue to come from Canada.
In 2024, the United States had 638 active NHL players, Sweden contributed 247, and Russia had 146. Canada feeds 1078 players into the NHL. When you go deeper into the ranks of pro hockey, a higher percentage of players are from Canada and the US. For example, the latest data shows the American Hockey League has 615 Canadians and 450 Americans. Seventy-one are from Sweden and 43 are from Finland, while the Russians provide just 54.
I believe we are currently at capacity for players of pro ability to fill the NHL teams. It could be argued that the depth has already been surpassed. Potentially there are already too many teams at 32.
There are unsubstantiated rumours that the city of New Orleans may be rewarded with an NHL franchise.
Commissioner Gary Bettman has not committed to adding a 33rd franchise, though expansion remains a topic of discussion. Other cities, including Houston and Atlanta, are already preparing NHL-ready arenas, while Phoenix is also in contention to regain a team.
Atlanta gets a hard no from this fan
The first NHL franchise in Atlanta was the Flames. They struggled mightily to draw fans and averaged only 10,000 per game by the 1979–80 season. They were sold to Canadian businessman Nelson Skalbania and moved to Calgary, where they became the Calgary Flames in 1980. In Calgary, the support is palpable on the street, in the business community and in the arena. The Atlanta Flames lasted just eight years from 1972 to 1980.
The Thrashers averaged 10,000 tickets sold per night too, many of them being season ticket holders. However, season ticket sales declined during the final three seasons. The Thrashers were relocated to Winnipeg, Manitoba, where they are now known as the Jets.
The latter franchise has now been in Winnipeg longer than it was in Atlanta. The franchise took to the ice in 1999 and left for Winnipeg in 2011. The new era Jets have been in place since the 2011-2012 season. While neither the Flames nor Thrashers could sell out in Atlanta. In Winnipeg, when news dropped that the NHL would return to the city, the arena was sold out in a matter of minutes. Attendance has been up and down, but it has never been as weak as it was in Atlanta.
Greater Atlanta has a population of 6.3 million, Greater Calgary has 1,422,000, and Winnipeg has just 834,000 — the love of hockey in Canada remains.
Atlanta does not deserve a third opportunity. The people do not like hockey. Let them enjoy their NBA, NFL, and MLB.
Meanwhile, Quebec City would love to have a franchise. Quebec has a population of 839,000 and like Winnipeg is the former home to an NHL team, the Nordiques.
Kansas City had a franchise during the 1970s. Do they deserve another chance? Two million and 221,000 people are living in Kansas City.
Kansas City is smack dab in the middle of six different NHL franchise locations including Denver to the west, St. Louis to the east, Dallas to the south and Columbus, Nashville and Chicago are just a little farther out. All connections are approximately an hour's flight.
While Atlanta is a hard no, New Orleans is categorically an insane idea. Just no. Houston has done well with minor hockey. As the other Texas-based team in Dallas, they are growing ilocal hockey culture, perhaps Houston will follow, not unlike the Los Angeles and Anaheim dynamic.
Does Phoenix deserve another franchise?
The NHL franchise idea in Phoenix ran its course. The arena is in an unfortunate location, the environment is too warm and the city council is toxic to the team.
The move from Phoenix, Arizona to Salt Lake City, Utah was sudden. However, it ended years of ownership turmoil, arena negotiations and relocation rumours that went on almost from the beginning of the time the Winnipeg Jets relocated to Phoenix in 1996 and became the Coyotes.
It was a whirlwind transition from Brick Red and Desert Sand sweaters of the Arizona version of the franchise to the Utah Hockey Club’s Rock Black and Mountain Blue. The team doesn’t even have a name yet.
So, while it could be argued that there are not enough players in the world to add more teams without diminishing the game, we know that the tropics and deserts do not necessarily have cultures that “get” the game of hockey.
But what Gary Bettman wants is television and streaming revenue
When negotiating television contracts for broadcast and streaming rights, the networks will look at the footprint of the North American market. This is why the NHL went to Phoenix, Atlanta, Dallas, Orlando, Nashville, Columbus, North Carolina, Miami, and Anaheim; continental footprint.
And this is why it took Bettman so long to allow Winnipeg to have another team. The 839,000 people in Winnipeg will watch hockey on television regardless if they have a team. But people in the desert or tropics need a team to get to know the sport and for the broadcasters and streamers to serve advertising to. Follow the money.
Bettman works for the owners, not for the fans, and not for the players.
The average franchise is now worth $1.9 billion. The Toronto Maple Leafs are valued at 3.8. It is an expensive game, owned by billionaires and played by millionaires. The average NHL salary is $3.5 million USD. The average ticket price is $90 to $104 depending on the market. Teams bring in approximately $1,800,000 in ticket revenue for each game, or $75 million a season not including playoffs, parking, concession, advertising, corporate box seats and merchandise sales.
It is an expensive game.
The NHL's Canadian broadcasting rights deal with telecom giant Rogers Communications is ending after the 2025 season. The parties agreed to $5.2 billion deal for NHL broadcast rights in 2013.
The NHL earns $625 million annually from seven-year contracts signed in 2021 with ESPN and Turner Sports to last until the 2027–28 season.
Disney (ABC and ESPN), Comcast (NBA and Peacock) and Amazon will air all of the NBA's nationally televised games from the 2025-26 season through the 2035-36 season — an 11-year deal that will net the NBA roughly $76 billion.
The NFL and MLB deals are bigger.
The NHL has some catching up to do. Footprint is everything, so don’t be surprised to hear about franchises in non-traditional hockey markets. And Gary Bettman does not care if you disagree.
But if you read this Mr. Bettman, please say “no” to Atlanta, Phoenix and New Orleans and yes to Quebec, Kansas City and by the way, Portland, OR.